Amongst other political developments, Labour have lost an important by-election on Thursday the 23rd of October for the Caerphilly Senedd seat. Once a bulwark for labour, Wales now seems to be yet but another area in British politics that is hotly contested between normally marginal parties and interests. Wales now seems to be on a crossroads, and this will mark a change for how we normally view the devolved nations, and the principle of devolution itself. While not official party policy, the promise for a scrapping of the Welsh parliament, the Senedd, has been suggested by challengers Reform after Laura Anne Jones made news at their conference claiming that the party would not rule out scrapping the Welsh Parliament. Asserting that their manifesto will not include such a promise, their seems to be indication among Reform ranks, that the Senedd has failed and will be on the agenda to be abolished.
On the other hand, Plaid Cymru, Welsh nationalists who usually hold strong in Welsh speaking areas in the North of Wales, have achieved a striking victory against Labour in the Caerphilly by-election.[1] With Welsh Labour having the ‘longest winning streak of any party and the political climate tenuous, it looks to be a time for change in Wales. With the Senedd election being as early as next year, it is extremely important to understand where the electorate stands, as this seeks to change the nature of the landscape of Wales, an important devolved nation particularly in regard to community safety policy. We see for example, that major legislation that passes through Westminster, such as the Crime and Policing Bill, often applies to Wales as much as it does England.
Currently the largest party in the Senedd is Welsh Labour, which holds 29 seats and has been in government since 1999. The next largest are the Welsh Conservatives and Plaid Cymru, with 14 and 12 members, respectively. Due to a change in the system of voting for the Senedd elections, it is unlikely that any party will win the 49 seats required for a majority in the 2026 Senedd election. The largest party will likely require the support of others, and would have to either form a coalition, or a much looser agreement in the form of ‘confidence and supply.’ According to polling since May 2025, it is likely the two largest parties in the Senedd after the 2026 election are likely to be Plaid Cymru and Reform UK. This means a huge change for Wales, both parties have extremely disparate visions for Wales and how devolution will work, with Plaid Cymru tabling the idea of further devolution reform and possibly, even Welsh independence. Meanwhile Reform will likely look to mirror the strategy they have already employed in England, with a potential to limit at best, the power of the Senedd.
The role of the Senedd
The Senedd was initially created as the National Assembly for Wales in 1999 as part of the Labour UK government’s plans to devolve power to Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. As usual with devolution, devolution to Wales was intended to allow for decisions on key services to be taken by “people directly elected by, and accountable to, Welsh votes.” The creation of the Welsh assembly was approved in a referendum that occurred in 1997.[2]
The Senedd has power to make laws over lots of key areas of Welsh life. This includes aspects of health and social care, housing, education, local transport, economic development, social services, language and culture, the environment, and local government.
The Government of Wales Act 2006 gave the Senedd limited powers to pass primary legislation, and, following a referendum in 2011, the Welsh electorate voted in favour of extending primary law-making powers to all areas where the Senedd has responsibility.
Since 2014, it has also held some tax-raising powers, including control of local taxes, taxes on property transactions (stamp duty land tax) and landfill, and the power to vary income tax rates in Wales.
From 2027, local authorities in Wales will have the power to introduce a visitor levy on overnight stays to be reinvested in local tourism infrastructure.
The Senedd has fewer powers than the Northern Ireland assembly and Scottish parliament. In particular, it has no power over policing and justice, which remain the responsibility of the UK government.
Plaid Cymru’s Likely Vision for Welsh Community Safety
Understanding that the Senedd is limited in its power compared to other devolved institutions, we will likely come to the issue of how, and to what extent, the Senedd plays a role in the everyday lives of the people of Wales. It is important to note that the Senedd has no power over police and justice, which remains chiefly, the responsibility of the UK government.
A Plaid Cymru force in Wales would likely transfer some if not all of these powers, to Wales. Plaid Cymru has before, supported the full transfer of justice powers to Wales, as ‘recommended by three independent commissions’ this includes the Thomas Commission on Justice in Wales and, most recently, the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future for Wales. Plaid Cymru notes in their publications that ‘it makes no sense that many of the policy levers for reducing crime in Wales are held in the our Senedd, while others are still held by Westminster’ they point to other devolved regions, such as Scotland and Northern Ireland, as well as devolved English areas, such as Manchester.[3] This would likely include a Minister of Justice in the Welsh Government. They would also propose to review the operation of criminal justice governance in Wales and remove the role of elected Police and Crime Commissioners, intending for the Minister of Justice to hold them to account.
This would likely mean a revisit of tools and powers as they are used in Wales, and, assuming they win in 2026, a revisit of legislation that was passed that applied to both England and Wales, including the Crime and Policing Bill.
Supporting Victims of Crime, including crime and anti-social behaviour, is also another focal point for Plaid Cymru. Plaid Cymru would create a Victims Commissioner for Wales, who would be able to represent victims of crime and stand up for their rights so that they are not ‘forgotten or ignored by decision makers.’ Of course, this will likely affect the interplay occurring as a result of Victims and Courts Bill, the question will remain how if this occurs, how the Victims and Courts Bill apply, if it still will.
Plaid Cymru also focuses on the backlog of court cases, believing that ‘everybody should have access to justice,’ they would pilot a scheme in courts are placed in the community with an appropriate timetable to resolve local justice needs, aiming to reduce the backlog of court cases.
Reform’s Likely Vision for Welsh Community Safety
While there is less indication as to what exactly a Reform Wales will look like, given they have no representation in the Senedd, there are certain clues to decipher what exactly they envisage the future of Wales to be. Of course, while not official policy, the party’s approach to devolution lays a cautious and at times, sceptical approach to Welsh self-government. There are, as articulated earlier, instincts to roll back devolved powers, as they will likely to be seen as an ‘inconvenience’ when pushing a Reform agenda in England. [4]
As of last month, Nigel Farge noted it was ‘too early’ to give answers on policy positions for Wales, it has been hinted that they will use already established devolved powers to do other things unrelated to community safety, such as adjusting tax bands, and making ‘life easier for business’.[5]
Likely their criminal justice policy will be similar to that proposed for England at their conference, including a return to a ‘zero-tolerance' approach, and the reintroduction of stop and search powers. You can read information about this in our party conference report here.
Wales in 2026
When we consider key developments in community safety policy, we often think it unanimous, and universal, with changes through Westminster often, incorrectly, assumed to touch every part of the United Kingdom. It is clear, however, that with the win in Caerphilly, and the mood and tone in the other nations such as Scotland and Northern Ireland, that there will likely be a question for how policy is delivered for every part of the Union, and not just England.
The upcoming Senedd elections are likely to decide the future of Wales as a constituent member of the United Kingdom for the following years. If current information is anything to go by, a Plaid Cymru victory in 2026 would likely shift Wales away from the legislation that is often passed in Westminster, and therefore there would likely have to be a much more focused approach to any policy occurring in Wales.
We support our Welsh members with pride, and we are always looking to hear from you. If you have any insights as a Welsh member on how criminal justice could change in Wales, please get in contact:
Harrison Box, Policy Officer
References
Collinson, Marc, and Robin Mann. What the Caerphilly Byelection Could Reveal about Reform, Labour and Wales’ Political Future. 16 Oct. 2025, theconversation.com/what-the-caerphilly-byelection-could-reveal-about-reform-labour-and-wales-political-future-266545, https://doi.org/10.64628/ab.xeh4khqtq. Accessed 4 Nov. 2025.
“Criminal Justice and Policing.” The Party of Wales, 2020, www.partyof.wales/cyfiawnder_plismona_justice_policing.
Furet, Marine. “Through a Welsh Lens: Reform UK’s Vision for Wales - Institute of Welsh Affairs.” Institute of Welsh Affairs, 26 June 2024, www.iwa.wales/agenda/2024/06/through-a-welsh-lens-reforms-vision-for-wales/.
Shuttleworth, Kelly . “Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament).” Institute for Government, 14 Apr. 2021, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainer/senedd-cymru-welsh-parliament.
Teleri Glyn-Jones. “Reform Leader Nigel Farage Says “Too Early” to Outline Senedd Policies.” BBC News, 11 Oct. 2025, www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx27282nneno.
[1] Collinson, Marc, and Robin Mann. What the Caerphilly Byelection Could Reveal about Reform, Labour and Wales’ Political Future. 16 Oct. 2025
[2] Shuttleworth, Kelly . “Senedd Cymru (Welsh Parliament).” Institute for Government, 14 Apr. 2021,
[3] “Criminal Justice and Policing.” The Party of Wales, 2020, www.partyof.wales/cyfiawnder_plismona_justice_policing.
[4] Furet, Marine. “Through a Welsh Lens: Reform UK’s Vision for Wales - Institute of Welsh Affairs.” Institute of Welsh Affairs, 26 June 2024, www.iwa.wales/agenda/2024/06/through-a-welsh-lens-reforms-vision-for-wales/.
[5] Teleri Glyn-Jones. “Reform Leader Nigel Farage Says “Too Early” to Outline Senedd Policies.” BBC News, 11 Oct. 2025, www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx27282nneno.
