The crisis in our prisons is well documented. One only needs to cast their mind back to the Standard Determinate Sentences 40% (SDS40) policy last year, aimed at allowing certain cohorts to be released from custody after serving 40% of their sentence in prison as opposed to 50%. It is therefore welcome that David Gauke’s independent sentencing review in response to this crisis in our prisons was published last week. In 2019, Gauke made a speech that questioned the effectiveness of short sentences and stated there was a compelling case for sentences of six months or less to be removed. The ex-Tory minister, who resigned from his cabinet upon Boris Johnson’s initial tenure as prime minister, is often seen as advocating for a liberal approach on sentencing policy. This is consistent for Keir Starmer’s position, who has often highlighted a growing appetite for a liberal position on sentencing, particularly with the appointment of James Timpson, the former chair of the Prisons Reform Trust, as his prisons minister.[1] The review has a few key principles and aims, which include that:
- Sentences must punish offenders and protect the public, ensuring that there is always space in prison for the most dangerous offenders.
- Sentences should encourage offenders to desist from a life of crime, ultimately reducing crime rates through lower reoffending.
- There should be an increased focus on utilising punishment outside of prison.[2]
How does prison overcrowding impact the criminal justice system and anti-social behaviour victims?
Despite some policy provisions aimed at managing the prison capacity, demand is still projected to outstrip supply, projected to grow by an average of 3,000 annually, potentially reaching between 97,300 and 112,300 prisoners by November 2032.[3] This not only means the purpose of prison is diluted and ineffective, but staff-prisoner ratios are now affecting prison officers’ ability to get everyone to participate in meaningful and purposeful activity during their incarceration.[4] As a consequence, prisoners get little support for life outside of prison, with often chaotic early release schemes causing a rise in recall rates, with many returning to prison just weeks after their early release.[5] The burgeoning prison population reaching capacity also means that the criminal justice system faces a domino effect that reverberates through every stage of the judicial process; overcrowding places pressure on court to expedite the handling of cases, from pre-trial hearings to sentencings and appeals. [6] This creates a dangerous paradox, with court delays making victims more likely to withdraw from the case, causing delays and wasted police time for attending court.[7]
Victims, particularly those of ASB are affected, as agencies struggle to use the legal toolkit due to the crisis in the criminal justice system. The Victims Commissioner has previously highlighted the reality of the court delays on victims earlier this year, highlighting how it had ‘adverse impacts on their employment and finances’ and was ‘damaging victims’ quality of life, including their ability to function day-to-day’.[8] This is just one of the reasons we are looking to support and advocate for members by conducting research into the reality of the criminal justice delays.
How did we get here?
The review proposes a variety of reasons for the overcrowding in prisons, including:
The use of custodial sentences has increased and is higher than in comparable countries.
The review proposes that the custody rate for indictable offences has grown exponentially since 1993, and the rates of incarceration highlight the England and Wales imprison more people per capita than nearly all other Western European Countries.[9] This has been coupled with a decline in the use of certain non-custodial sentences, including community orders. This has declined sharply, from 26% of disposal in 1996, to just 6% of disposal in June 2024.[10] Custodial sentences have also sharply increased in length.
Increases in the use of recall and custodial remand.
The recall population was less than 100 in 1993, however, the end of December 2024, the recall population had reached 12,920. The reason for this is a collection of introductions of mandatory community supervision for shorter sentences and heightened probation officer risk aversion.
Mental ill-health as a driver of crime and therefore the prison population
In a call for evidence, it was noted for many respondents that many lower level “violent offending” convictions, particularly in women are linked to untreated mental ill-health and substance addiction. With the strain in mental health services, those with severe mental health have struggle to obtain help from agencies, and as a result those with mental ill-health overrepresent in the UK prison population.
To read the full list of recommendations click here
What does the review recommend?
The majority of the recommendations proposed in the review have now been accepted in principle, a Sentencing Bill is now due within the coming months. The primary recommendation proposed from Mr Gauke, is for the Government to pass new legislation to “ensure short custodial sentences are used only in exceptional circumstances,” While it is clear Mr Gauke is not seeking to abolish short sentences, it is estimated that such legislation could save around 2,000 prison places. Gauke takes a firm stance against custodial sentences, arguing they are ineffective, destabilising, and contribute to the cycle of reoffending.[11] Some more of the recommendations proposed include:
Moving to a three-part sentence called the earned progression model.
The government accepted this recommendation in principle. As articulated from Shabana Mahmood, Lord Chancellor and Secretary of State for Justice, under this model an offender will not necessarily leave prison at an automatic point. Instead, their release date will be determined by their behaviour, this was observed during the governments visit to Texas earlier in the year reviewing prison services.[12]
Extended determinate sentences gaining an earlier release.
This was not accepted by the government. This was rejected on the basis that Judges give extended sentences to those they consider dangerous.
Reduction in short prison sentences
A reduction in short prison sentences is just another of the proposals submitted by the report, the government articulated that in the most recent data, nearly 60% of those receiving a 12-month sentence reoffended within a year. As expressed in parliament Shabana Mahood stated, “It is important, however, to note that the review recommends a reduction in short sentences, not abolition. It is right that judges retain the discretion to hand them down in exceptional circumstances. In considering exceptional circumstances, we will continue to ensure that courts have access to thorough risk assessments for domestic abuse and stalking cases, and breaches of protective orders linked to violence against women and girls will be excluded.”
Extension of suspended sentences from two to three years
Accepted by the government, under this recommendation the prospect of prison time hangs over an offender should they break any conditions imposed upon them.
Expanding intensive supervision courts
This was accepted by the government, this is accepted under the premise that those that impose tough condition, including treatment requirements, which tackle the root causes of prolific offending.
Expanding the use of specialist domestic abuse courts
It is welcomed that the government also stressed the focus on victims, of course any stress or strain in the criminal justice system means victims pay the price. It is therefore welcomed the recommendation to expand the use of specialist domestic abuse courts was accepted by the government, were trained staff support victims.
Conclusion
Anti-social behaviour victim deserves better when it comes to their experience of the criminal justice system, and the prison system is but one element that has experienced real strain and therefore proposals to challenge the foundations of justice and rehabilitation is welcome. Of course, prison reforms such as this report are not, and do not claim to be, a panacea, however, when used in conjunction with expansion in the prison capacity, we can have a justice system that serves the wider public, and victims. Now that the majority of the recommendations have been accepted in principle, a Sentencing Bill is now due in the coming months. We will of course keep a keen eye on any policy developments and will seek to use our influence to give you a voice on any legislation.
If you have any questions around this piece, or anything other policy related news, please contact:
Harrison Box, Policy Officer
To read the full report click here
[1] Guardian News and Media. (2025, May 20). Judges told to favour community alternatives over short prison sentences. The Guardian. https://www.theguardian.com/law/2025/may/20/judges-told-to-favour-community-alternatives-over-short-prison-sentences
[2] https://www.criminaljusticealliance.org/blog/the-independent-sentencing-review/
[3] Independent Sentencing Review Final report and proposals for reform (no date). P.9 https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/682d8d995ba51be7c0f45371/independent-sentencing-review-report-part_2.pdf.
[4] https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/POST-PB-0058/POST-PB-0058.pdf p.9
[5] Rowland C and Davies N, ‘Fixing public services: The criminal justice system,’ Fixing public services, Institute for Government, 2024.
[6] https://blog.govnet.co.uk/justice/how-the-overflowing-prison-population-fuels-court-backlogs#:~:text=The%20Impact%20of%20Overcrowded%20Prisons,hearings%20to%20sentencing%20and%20appeals.
[7] Ames J, ‘Victims abandon rape trials due to acute backlog of cases’, The Telegraph, 25 July 2024, retrieved 9 September 2024, https://www.thetimes.com/uk/law/article/victims-abandon-rape-trials-due-to-acute-backlog-of-cases-f5nk6js3m
[8] https://cloud-platform-e218f50a4812967ba1215eaecede923f.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/sites/6/2025/03/OVC-Crown-Court-backlog-report-10.03.25.pdf
[9] World Prison Brief, United Kingdom England & Wales (2024) < United Kingdom: England & Wales | World Prison Brief >. Note that this data is continually updated and all the WPB figures in this paper were last accessed 25 November 2024. For accurate figures after this date, please refer directly to the website.
[10] Ministry of Justice, Criminal Justice Statistics quarterly (2024) < Criminal Justice System statistics quarterly: June 2024 - GOV.UK
[11] https://www.switalskis.com/blog/prison-sentencing-reforms
[12] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cr52399eqgqo#:~:text=Looking%20to%20this%20prison%20for,chance%20of%20employment%20once%20released.
