The prisons crisis in the UK is a well-established, and well reported issue that plagues the criminal justice system. We only have to look back to the SDS40 Early Release scheme, a measure introduced by the Government to ease the pressure on our ‘overburdened prison system’, the policy allowed for cohorts to be released from custody after serving 40% of their sentence in prison as opposed to 50%.^[1] Research into public opinion of the Criminal Justice System, found that over 60% of people already deem current sentencing to be ‘too lenient’.^[2] Despite this, the reality was that the scheme was more of a practical, pragmatic approach to the acute overcrowding crisis in our prisons.  

The prison population has nearly doubled over the past 30 years, and projections point the unnerving fact that 9,500 prison places will be found short by 2028.^[3] Overcrowding of prisons create a plethora of problems, including impacting the efficacy of rehabilitation in prison, rising risks due to the lack of staff, compromised delivery of support and guidance and creating further delays in cases for those seeking justice.^[4] Research from the University of Bristol highlighted that overcrowding was far worse for prison outcomes than early release. This includes the fact that overcrowding imposes degrading living and working conditions on prisoners and prison officers, with a recent report by the HM Inspectorate of Prisons shows that four in ten prisoners spent nearly all day in their cells without proper access to education, employment and sports activities.^[5] Of course, it should be noted that these prisoners that were released back into community were coming back into a society with a severely overstretched probation and housing system.^[6]  It is therefore encouraged, that there are a litany of reforms and practical developments that seek to alleviate the acute crisis in prisons, these are found in the newly announced Sentencing Bill, and the commitment for the greatest expansion in prisons since the Victorian period. ^[7]

The Crown Court Backlogs and the Pressures for ASB Provision

Reform cannot be conducted without recognising the gravity of the crown court backlog. The Crown Court backlog is now standing at just above 73,000 cases, representing delayed justice, and significant turmoil for victims.^[8] We are currently attempting to understand the realities of these impacts, more information on how to give evidence can be found at the end of this piece. Of course, as prisons reach full Delays can significantly hamper justice and resolution, particularly in the case of ASB, whereby quick and timely resolution is vital in order to ensure it does not accumulate to something much worse and more insidious. We know that as ASB escalates, victims often face a frustrating experience in trying to engage with the agencies that should be helping them.^[9] This is why we repeat our ask for government that calls for a resolution to the current civil justice delays in order to best serve and deliver justice and resolution to victims. The prisons crisis is but one, vital, element in the complex web that is hampering provision across the criminal justice system.

Policy: The Sentencing Bill 2025

Facing one of his first challenges as Justice Secretary, David Lammy inherits the Sentencing Bill from his predecessor Shabana Mahmood, as it now faces its second reading in the House of Commons. The Bill was introduced to the House of Commons on the 2^nd of September 2025, and is an implementation of a litany of the recommendations made by the independent sentencing review, led by the former Conservative justice secretary David Gauke.^[10] The review was commissioned under a growing concern of the rising prison population and looked at the use of non-custodial sentences, community alternatives, the release of offenders and the use and effect of short sentences. The bill would extend to both England and Wales, apart from a few amendments that would apply to the whole of the United Kingdom. The Bill is a massive piece of legislation, containing 420 clauses and 29 schedules. The Bill will likely not come into effect for some time as it still needs to pass through several parliamentary stages, unlikely to start until early 2026. Of the numerous elements included within the Sentencing Bill, the central reforms that will reduce the pressure on prison capacity include:

• Suspending all sentences of 12 months or less; the offender serves their sentence in the community unless they commit a further offence or breach the terms of their sentence.
   
• Allowing courts to suspend sentences of up to three years.
   
•  ‘Earned progression’ to prison sentences; most offenders will be released after a third of their sentence unless they break prison rules.

Reform Effectiveness

Research has consistently shown that community-based sentences are more effective at reducing repeat offences than short-term incarceration in prison.^[11] Similarly, broadening the use of deferred sentencing could enhance rehabilitation outcomes.

The concept of earned progression can also hold some promise, particularly if it motivates prisoners to participate in constructive activities like education and work. These engagements can lead to safer prison environments, better rehabilitation outcomes, and long-term cost savings. However, linking release to such activities may not be practical under current conditions, due to the fact that many prisons lack sufficient opportunities for purposeful engagement, and in 2023/24, around one-third of inmates weren’t involved in any such activity. ^[12]

The Sentencing Bill proposes a shift away from short custodial sentences, with prison terms under 12 months reserved for exceptional cases. Instead, courts will be encouraged to use community-based interventions such as suspended sentence orders, curfews, fines, and exclusion zones, tools that can be more effective in addressing the root causes of anti-social behaviour (ASB) without disrupting housing, employment, or family stability.

Short prison sentences may still be considered in specific scenarios, including persistent breaches of court orders, domestic abuse cases where victims require immediate protection, or repeat offending while under community supervision. These exceptions reflect a targeted approach to safeguarding victims and maintaining public confidence.

Suspended Sentence Orders (SSOs) will be extended to a maximum of three years, allowing for longer-term engagement with individuals assessed as low risk, such as those with substance misuse issues or vulnerable groups like pregnant women. This change supports more sustained rehabilitation and community oversight.

Reducing the use of short-term custody is used to minimise disruption to housing tenancies and reduce the risk of homelessness, which is often exacerbated by brief periods in prison.

The Bill promotes wider use of electronic monitoring to enforce conditions such as curfews and exclusion zones. This technology will allow individuals to serve part of their sentence in the community, either at home or in approved accommodation, while being closely monitored. For housing and ASB teams, this offers a practical tool to manage risk and ensure compliance with behavioural conditions without resorting to custody.

The Bill introduces a more proportionate recall model for those on standard determinate sentences, focusing on persistent non-compliance or imminent risk. A longer Fixed-Term Recall period will replace short-term recalls, reflecting the seriousness of the breach.

This reform aims to reduce the instability caused by unpredictable recalls, which can disrupt housing placements, support plans, and community safety strategies.

Courts will be empowered to impose non-custodial restrictions, including electronic monitoring and exclusion zones, to protect victims and prevent further harm.

These measures align with wider community safety objectives and offer housing providers and local authorities more robust tools to manage risk and support vulnerable residents.

Conclusion

These reforms are a significant step in the right direction, and the expansion of prisons in order to combat overcrowding can only be a good thing. We will continue to monitor the progression of the Sentencing Bill for our members, inviting experience and opinion when it goes to a call for evidence, once it passes to committee stage. To contact around this piece, any other policy related issue, or the work on the civil justice delays, please contact:

Harrison Box, Policy Officer

This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

^[1] Bowen, Katy. “The SDS40 Early Release Scheme - from a Provider of Victim and Offender Services | Catch22.” Catch22, 2 Oct. 2024, www.catch-22.org.uk/resources/the-sds40-early-release-scheme-from-a-provider-of-victim-and-offender-services/.

^[2] “Public Confidence in Sentencing and the Criminal Justice System: 2022.” Sentencingcouncil.org.uk, 2022, sentencingcouncil.org.uk/publications/research-reports/public-confidence-in-sentencing-and-the-criminal-justice-system-2022/. Accessed 16 Sept. 2025.

^[3] “What Does the Sentencing Bill Mean for Justice-Involved Families?” Prisonadvice.org.uk, Prison Advice and Care Trust, 2025, www.prisonadvice.org.uk/latest/news/what-does-the-sentencing-bill-mean-for-justice-involved-families/. Accessed 16 Sept. 2025.

^[4] “Overcrowding in Prisons.” Nacro *, 4 Oct. 2024, www.nacro.org.uk/nacro-services/our-work-in-criminal-justice/overcrowding-in-prisons/.

^[5] Ismail, Nasrul. “Why Overcrowded Prisons Are More Dangerous than Releasing Prisoners Early – Bristol Social Harm and Crime Research Group.” Bristol.ac.uk, 16 Aug. 2024, harmandcrime.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/2024/08/16/why-overcrowded-prisons-are-more-dangerous-than-releasing-prisoners-early/.

^[6] Gregory, Andy. ““Cell, Street, Repeat”: Prisoners Set up to Fail with Release into Homelessness.” The Independent, 28 Dec. 2023, www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/prison-crisis-homelessness-probation-reoffending-b2461968.html.

^[7] Ministry of Justice. “Landmark Sentencing Reforms to Ensure Prisons Never Run out of Space Again.” GOV.UK, 22 May 2025, www.gov.uk/government/news/landmark-sentencing-reforms-to-ensure-prisons-never-run-out-of-space-again.

^[8] MacKenzie, Craig . “ASB Awareness Week 2025: How Sentencing Reform Impacts Anti-Social Behaviour and Housing Responses.” Forbes Solicitors, 30 June 2025, www.forbessolicitors.co.uk/articles/asb-awareness-week-2025-how-sentencing-reform-impacts-anti-social-behaviour-and-housing-responses. Accessed 16 Sept. 2025.

^[9] “Anti-Social Behaviour: Living a Nightmare – Victims Commissioner.” Victims Commissioner, 2022, victimscommissioner.org.uk/news/anti-social-behaviour-living-a-nightmare/.

^[10] Rowland, Cassia. “Key Omissions Risk Undermining the Government’s Bold Sentencing Goals | Institute for Government.” Institute for Government, 23 May 2025, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/sentencing-review-recommendations. Accessed 16 Sept. 2025.

^[11] The Scottish Government. “What Works to Reduce Reoffending: Update of the Evidence on Imprisonment and Community Disposals.” Gov.scot, The Scottish Government, 18 June 2025, www.gov.scot/publications/works-reduce-reoffending-update-evidence-imprisonment-community-disposals/pages/. Accessed 16 Sept. 2025.

^[12] “Focusing on Education and Training in Prisons Could Save Money in the Long Term | Institute for Government.” Institute for Government, 14 Mar. 2025, www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/comment/education-training-prisons-money.